A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
